Sat, Oct 15, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 011 | 07 | 00 | 0 | 126 |
| VAN | 09 | 07 | 112 | 03 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14CGYTroy BrouwerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–0
- P3 16:09VANDaniel SedinAssists: Loui Eriksson, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CGY Sam Bennett stopped
- 2. VAN Sven Baertschi stopped
- 3. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 4. VAN Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 5. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 6. VAN Loui Eriksson stopped
- 7. CGY Kris Versteeg stopped
- 8. VAN Brandon Sutter scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:14CGYTroy Brouwer: Holding2 min
- P2 6:40CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:22VANChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:35VANChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:37VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:37CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:44CGYAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:36CGYDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Chiasson – Tkachuk2:23
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Ferland – Bennett5:28
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Ferland2:51
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bouma7:50
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Kulak13:17
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:00
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
- Jokipakka – Hamilton14:07
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Eriksson13:15
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Granlund – Baertschi – Virtanen7:03
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – Horvat8:09
xG 0.09–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hansen – Sutter – Gaunce8:16
xG 0.23–0.27 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev16:27
xG 0.98–0.53 (65%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Larsen10:13
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton15:17
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).