Sun, Oct 16, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 03 | 013 | 210 | 00 | 226 |
| NYI | 116 | 05 | 17 | 12 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Jason Chimera, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 7:59NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 8:31ANACam FowlerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:00ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 0:54NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:26ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P1 10:31ANAJosh Manson: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:03NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:03ANAJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:03ANAJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:38NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:35ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:13NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:18NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:30NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Raymond – Sorensen6:55
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Silfverberg – Ritchie4:05
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Vermette – Perry – Cogliano5:49
xG 0.02–0.15 (11%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ritchie6:03
xG 0.01–0.31 (4%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Manson12:51
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Larsson11:37
xG 0.10–0.76 (12%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Fowler12:49
xG 0.11–0.89 (11%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Lee – Nelson8:15
xG 0.47–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas4:37
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Tavares12:59
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Quine – Strome – Beauvillier3:43
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan12:32
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Hickey11:28
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Leddy15:58
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).