Sun, Oct 16, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 210 | 26 | 28 | 624 |
| EDM | 210 | 011 | 012 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Sam Reinhart, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 7:14BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 17:20EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Zack Kassian, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 19:00EDMMilan LucicAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P2 3:53BUFRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 9:22BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Jake McCabe, Marcus Foligno · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 0:37BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 4:36BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.10 xG6–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:25EDMBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:21EDMBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:16EDMEric Gryba: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16EDMEric Gryba: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:16BUFJake McCabe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:23EDMPatrick Maroon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:59EDMEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:29EDMAnton Lander: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:58EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58BUFDerek Grant: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25BUFCody Franson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Girgensons – Fasching3:52
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson12:48
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Reinhart10:52
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Ennis – Grant – Deslauriers5:27
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Kulikov2:49
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe14:32
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 8–13goals 3–0
- Kulikov – Ristolainen2:18
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins4:22
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid9:58
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:18
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Letestu – Kassian – Puljujarvi2:08
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell16:20
xG 0.97–0.28 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Larsson – Nurse3:54
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Larsson – Klefbom12:14
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).