Sun, Oct 16, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 27 | 110 | 05 | 00 | 322 |
| VAN | 010 | 17 | 213 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:36CARVictor RaskAssists: Lee Stempniak · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:10CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 5:28CARJustin FaulkAssists: Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–0
- P2 12:03VANBo HorvatAssists: Markus Granlund · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 1:11VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Jannik Hansen, Brandon Sutter · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 14:10VANBen HuttonAssists: Derek Dorsett, Brendan Gaunce · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:32VANBrandon SutterGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:00VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:58VANBrendan Gaunce: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:01CARViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:44CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom7:39
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask12:04
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Lindholm – Aho7:36
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Bickell – Stalberg8:38
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Slavin15:26
xG 0.65–0.66 (50%)attempts 12–18goals 2–2
- Hainsey – Pesce18:52
xG 0.23–0.27 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin11:50
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Sutter – Granlund11:30
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – Gaunce7:05
xG 0.61–0.03 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen10:28
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson13:10
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Larsen10:32
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tanev7:41
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev8:57
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).