Tue, Oct 18, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Anaheim Ducks 1, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 05 | 09 | 124 |
| NJD | 011 | 212 | 05 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03ANASami VatanenPPAssists: Corey Perry, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:35NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:46NJDTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Damon Severson, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:30NJDVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:30ANARyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:55NJDAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:15NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:33ANAJacob Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:29NJDReid Boucher: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:15ANAEmerson Etem: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:42ANAAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:31ANANick Sorensen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:15ANARyan Kesler: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:49NJDAdam Henrique: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:50ANAKevin Bieksa: Holding2 min
- P3 5:39ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:56NJDJohn Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ritchie10:51
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kesler – Silfverberg – Garbutt6:44
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Raymond – Etem – Wagner5:02
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Cogliano – Sorensen6:34
xG 0.03–0.37 (7%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Manson13:44
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Fowler9:54
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Larsson11:18
xG 0.19–0.32 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSmith-Pelly – Bennett – Zacha9:41
xG 0.52–0.10 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Josefson – Boucher4:44
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Palmieri8:59
xG 0.24–0.37 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Zajac – Hall8:44
xG 0.04–0.19 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Auvitu5:08
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Severson – Auvitu4:38
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Greene2:49
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).