Tue, Oct 18, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 110 | 39 | 427 |
| CHI | 311 | 111 | 36 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Brent Seabrook · Wrap-around, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:26CHIDennis RasmussenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 18:12CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 5:04CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 18:23PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 0:37PHIMatt ReadAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 1:54PHISean CouturierAssists: Nick Schultz, Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 3:49PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–4
- P3 10:24CHIArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 16:03CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.09 xG4–6
- P3 19:15CHIArtem AnisimovENAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:37CHITyler Motte: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:59PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 3:07PHIBoyd Gordon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:48PHIBrandon Manning: Interference2 min
- P2 17:31CHIPatrick Kane: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:03CHIMichal Kempny: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:20CHITyler Motte: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Read3:39
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Weise – Read – Bellemare4:38
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl6:36
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gordon – VandeVelde – Lyubimov5:06
xG 0.08–0.27 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere14:24
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere2:12
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Manning11:35
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin12:18
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 3–1
- Tootoo – Kruger – Rasmussen5:55
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Motte9:18
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Hossa – Hinostroza – Schmaltz6:03
xG 0.07–0.10 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Forsling14:50
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson15:49
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Kempny14:26
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).