Tue, Oct 18, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 07 | 213 | 233 |
| EDM | 211 | 19 | 08 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51EDMAnton SlepyshevAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:22EDMJordan EberleAssists: Mark Fayne · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 2:35EDMTyler PitlickGWGAssists: Mark Letestu, Anton Lander · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 3:18CARLee StempniakAssists: Victor Rask, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 4:14CARLee StempniakAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:19CARRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:01EDMConnor McDavid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:28CARJaccob Slavin: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:00CARLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:24EDMAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Rask12:15
xG 1.11–0.53 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe8:32
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Bickell – Frk4:39
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Lindholm – Aho4:56
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk14:19
xG 1.05–0.29 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Slavin – Pesce14:11
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Nakladal13:23
xG 0.22–0.68 (24%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins9:51
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Maroon – Slepyshev – Draisaitl11:09
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Letestu – Lander – Pitlick6:52
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Lucic – Eberle – McDavid11:26
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Nurse2:08
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Russell – Klefbom4:07
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse2:30
xG 0.05–0.06 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).