Thu, Oct 20, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 18 | 19 | 326 |
| PHI | 06 | 28 | 08 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:24ANAChris WagnerAssists: Jared Boll, Sami Vatanen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 4:52PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:26PHIMatt ReadAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Steve Mason · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 16:42ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 11:34ANARyan GarbuttGWGAssists: Korbinian Holzer, Nick Sorensen · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:56ANAJosh Manson: Elbowing2 min
- P1 8:01PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:22ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P2 1:06PHIBrandon Manning: Holding2 min
- P2 4:36ANAAntoine Vermette: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 5:30ANAClayton Stoner: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:47ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:10ANARyan Getzlaf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:29ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24PHIIvan Provorov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:24ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ritchie9:57
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Garbutt – Sorensen4:43
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:21
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Boll – Etem – Wagner4:40
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Holzer7:42
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Fowler – Manson11:23
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen12:12
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Gordon – VandeVelde – Cousins4:10
xG 0.04–0.01 (79%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn10:56
xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Weise – Read – Bellemare7:19
xG 0.10–0.45 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny7:44
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Manning2:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Streit – Provorov9:20
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Manning11:38
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).