Thu, Oct 20, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 217 | 07 | 234 |
| PIT | 06 | 04 | 310 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:04SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 16:15SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 6:47PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 9:01PITScott WilsonAssists: Matt Cullen, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 14:02PITPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:17SJSBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:20PITIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 0:56PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:04SJSMikkel Boedker: Holding2 min
- P2 12:48SJSDavid Schlemko: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:10PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:17SJSPaul Martin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:54SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:48
xG 0.74–0.06 (92%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Karlsson6:40
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Tierney9:49
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Couture – Boedker – Donskoi9:24
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun12:26
xG 0.42–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon2:05
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns10:30
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Hornqvist – Wilson7:40
xG 0.65–0.09 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Bonino – Hagelin – Rust2:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Kessel5:45
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Fehr – Sestito – Kuhnhackl4:41
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Pouliot7:58
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Dumoulin13:44
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz15:37
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).