Thu, Oct 20, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 17 | 22 | 416 |
| TBL | 05 | 010 | 012 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:35COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 19:08COLMatt DucheneAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Mikhail Grigorenko · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 7:53COLAndreas MartinsenAssists: Joe Colborne, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P3 12:22COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.04 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:22TBLBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:22COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:38COLMikhail Grigorenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:43TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:23COLJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:52COLJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:50TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- McLeod – Smith – Bourque3:26
xG 0.02–0.05 (23%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Colborne – Martinsen8:33
xG 0.07–0.14 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Iginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:52
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Duchene – Grigorenko8:30
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov2:51
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie2:29
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov8:35
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Namestnikov – Point10:46
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov3:57
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Killorn – Johnson – Drouin4:38
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette7:17
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman10:52
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr5:05
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr6:06
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).