Thu, Oct 20, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 218 | 012 | 11 | 439 |
| DAL | 18 | 17 | 15 | 00 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18LAKNic DowdPPAssists: Tom Gilbert, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:40DALRadek FaksaAssists: Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 1:24LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tanner Pearson, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 5:00DALJamie BennPPAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 19:33LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 17:53DALJason SpezzaAssists: Tyler Seguin, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 1:20LAKAlec MartinezGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:06DALDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:57DALPatrick Sharp: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:09LAKDwight King: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:45LAKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:45DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:45DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:45DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:45DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:39LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:39DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:39LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:40LAKNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:01DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P3 5:48DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:10LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Dowd – Andreoff7:25
xG 0.54–0.27 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Pearson3:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Shore5:34
xG 0.15–0.11 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Setoguchi – Pearson5:48
xG 0.38–0.42 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez14:04
xG 1.00–0.39 (72%)attempts 22–9goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Forbort5:27
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb14:54
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Ritchie – Shore4:50
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Faksa5:45
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin2:38
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Cracknell – McKenzie3:21
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Johns10:31
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Klingberg11:40
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Lindell2:14
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).