Thu, Oct 20, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 110 | 014 | 135 |
| EDM | 09 | 17 | 27 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:37STLNail YakupovAssists: Joel Edmundson, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 6:22EDMTyler PitlickAssists: Andrej Sekera, Mark Letestu · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 0:36EDMMilan LucicGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 19:22EDMConnor McDavidENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.70 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:45STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:31EDMAnton Slepyshev: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:45EDMAdam Larsson: Elbowing2 min
- P3 1:44EDMEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:25STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Jaskin – Yakupov8:48
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Perron – Fabbri8:11
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Perron – Schwartz3:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:23
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:38
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 30–13goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Bortuzzo8:12
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko3:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Eberle – McDavid13:50
xG 1.07–0.52 (67%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Maroon – Slepyshev – Draisaitl9:20
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Letestu – Lander – Pitlick3:07
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins11:21
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Nurse12:12
xG 0.84–0.67 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell16:57
xG 0.74–0.61 (55%)attempts 17–25goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom14:58
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).