Fri, Oct 21, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 113 | 111 | 234 |
| CBJ | 117 | 27 | 04 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:50CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 2:29CHITyler MotteAssists: Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik · Snap, 0.45 xG1–1
- P2 4:36CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Cam Atkinson · Backhand, 0.41 xG1–2
- P2 13:44CBJWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: David Savard, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 5:54CHIRichard PanikAssists: Gustav Forsling, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:44CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:30CBJRyan Murray: Delaying game2 min
- P1 10:26CHIMichal Kempny: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:48CHIRichard Panik: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:17CBJCam Atkinson: Holding2 min
- P3 16:34CBJMatt Calvert: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Kruger – Rasmussen5:57
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Panik – Motte2:19
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Kane – Hartman – Schmaltz2:11
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hartman – Rasmussen – Schmaltz2:35
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Forsling9:00
xG 0.94–0.14 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Campbell – Keith5:41
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Kempny10:44
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg12:29
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson15:04
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Karlsson – Anderson8:51
xG 0.70–0.85 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Sedlak – Jenner – Bjorkstrand5:43
xG 0.08–0.64 (12%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard10:38
xG 1.09–0.10 (92%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski10:00
xG 0.86–0.64 (57%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nutivaara6:03
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).