Sat, Oct 22, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 4, Boston Bruins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 29 | 27 | 429 |
| BOS | 06 | 08 | 27 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:41MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 17:44MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Alexander Radulov, Greg Pateryn · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 5:34BOSDominic MooreAssists: Tim Schaller, Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 7:32MTLPaul ByronSHGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 8:09BOSRyan SpoonerPPAssists: David Backes, David Krejci · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 12:47MTLTorrey MitchellUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:42MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 4:00BOSDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P1 15:56BOSJoe Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:31BOSJoe Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:33MTLAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:33BOSDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:33BOSDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:21MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:23MTLAlexei Emelin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 12:47BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:17BOSRiley Nash: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:17MTLAlexander Radulov: Embellishment2 min
- P3 17:59MTLShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P3 19:04MTLJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Danault – Flynn8:09
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk8:38
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Radulov – Lehkonen10:11
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Byron – Shaw6:37
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Pateryn12:51
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 3–1
- Weber – Beaulieu12:56
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry10:24
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Nash – Hayes7:06
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:09
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Schaller – Acciari7:38
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Backes – Krejci – Spooner8:27
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Miller8:43
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Miller – Krug2:33
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Krug12:27
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).