Sat, Oct 22, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 0, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 012 | 012 | 030 |
| DET | 011 | 29 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:14DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 15:10DETGustav NyquistAssists: Ryan Sproul · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 6:05DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:28DETThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P1 7:53SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
- P1 9:38SJSBrenden Dillon: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:26DETDarren Helm: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 0:38DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:31SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:03DETGustav Nyquist: Holding2 min
- P3 1:08SJSBrent Burns: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:22SJSJoe Pavelski: Spearing double minor4 min
- P3 6:22DETDrew Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 6:22DETSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:45SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:51SJSPatrick Marleau: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Couture4:00
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Boedker2:33
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Wingels – Nieto – Karlsson3:57
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Couture – Boedker – Donskoi4:04
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martin – Burns7:30
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun9:33
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Martin – Braun2:33
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Helm – Athanasiou5:53
xG 0.19–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Ott – Miller – Glendening6:08
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Larkin6:45
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Sheahan9:52
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Sproul9:29
xG 0.71–0.16 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko11:01
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Green – DeKeyser12:09
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).