Sat, Oct 22, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 313 | 011 | 330 |
| PHI | 06 | 414 | 27 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:50CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:07CARJordan StaalAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 4:50PHIBrandon ManningAssists: Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 7:19PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 15:51PHIMatt ReadAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 17:17PHIShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 18:54CARLee StempniakAssists: Victor Rask, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 11:50PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.41 xG3–5
- P3 17:33PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Nick Schultz, Chris VandeVelde · Snap, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:06PHITravis Konecny: Charging2 min
- P1 9:06CARBryan Bickell: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:19PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50CARKlas Dahlbeck: Interference2 min
- P3 6:30CARNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P3 6:56PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:35CARNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:27PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:01PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Teravainen – Lindholm7:32
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Aho9:01
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask10:47
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- McClement – Bickell – Stalberg6:03
xG 0.04–0.33 (11%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk11:32
xG 0.90–0.53 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin10:36
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce14:20
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGordon – VandeVelde – Lyubimov2:46
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Read – Cousins – Bellemare7:53
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn10:23
xG 0.23–0.67 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny10:52
xG 0.42–1.22 (26%)attempts 11–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Manning – Provorov11:33
xG 0.39–0.62 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz14:00
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere11:41
xG 0.20–0.91 (18%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).