Sat, Oct 22, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 211 | 113 | 01 | 1 | 434 |
| CHI | 15 | 112 | 213 | 05 | 2 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:46TORTyler BozakAssists: Jake Gardiner, Mitch Marner · Deflected, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 9:28TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:08CHITyler MotteAssists: Brian Campbell, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–2
- P2 18:16TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 4:46TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
- P3 17:32CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Brian Campbell, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
- P3 18:32CHIRichard PanikAssists: Duncan Keith, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 2. TOR Peter Holland stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 5. CHI Artemi Panarin scored
- 6. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:42TORPeter Holland: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:40TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:50CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:45TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P2 15:36TORConnor Carrick: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:00CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:32TORJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:20TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:59
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:05
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Martin – Holland – Brown6:53
xG 0.15–0.60 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Michalek – Komarov – Kadri10:17
xG 0.10–0.74 (12%)attempts 3–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Gardiner4:30
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Polak – Rielly9:26
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Rielly – Carrick4:10
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Rasmussen – Schmaltz4:39
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Motte12:28
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:24
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Hartman6:15
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Keith13:10
xG 0.76–0.19 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Kempny10:24
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson2:35
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).