Sat, Oct 22, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 08 | 014 | 135 |
| NSH | 113 | 410 | 07 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52PITScott WilsonAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 3:08NSHViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 2:26NSHKevin FialaGWGAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 10:36NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Yannick Weber, Juuse Saros · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 11:32NSHKevin FialaAssists: Filip Forsberg, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–4
- P2 19:24NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:33PITTrevor Daley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 9:09PITTom Sestito: Interference2 min
- P1 19:09PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02NSHHarry Zolnierczyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:00NSHYannick Weber: Broken stick2 min
- P3 13:33PITBrian Dumoulin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Hornqvist4:33
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Wilson5:48
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Kessel9:48
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Fehr – Sestito – Kuhnhackl5:56
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWarsofsky – Maatta11:16
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Schultz – Dumoulin5:33
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Cole6:42
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Forsberg – Fiala7:15
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Wilson – Jarnkrok – Watson7:26
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Fiala2:36
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Neal – Johansen – Arvidsson14:25
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Subban – Ekholm13:25
xG 0.88–0.86 (51%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Carle – Subban2:03
xG 0.03–0.03 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Weber12:35
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).