Sat, Oct 22, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 18 | 211 | 326 |
| DAL | 09 | 015 | 08 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:04CBJJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Boone Jenner, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 9:02CBJScott HartnellAssists: William Karlsson, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 18:48CBJMatt CalvertENAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:21CBJAlexander Wennberg: Holding2 min
- P2 6:13CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:50DALRadek Faksa: Interference2 min
- P2 12:53CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:23CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:23DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:21CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:39DALJohn Klingberg: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P3 11:18CBJDalton Prout: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:55DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg12:06
xG 0.72–0.38 (66%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson8:42
xG 0.44–0.37 (55%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Karlsson – Anderson8:53
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Gagner – Sedlak – Jenner9:53
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski14:58
xG 1.06–0.66 (62%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Prout – Nutivaara10:52
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard18:33
xG 0.61–1.14 (35%)attempts 18–24goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Korpikoski – Shore2:14
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Benn – Seguin5:34
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Smith5:39
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Faksa6:00
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Klingberg7:15
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Benn4:56
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Nemeth6:04
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).