Sun, Oct 23, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Minnesota Wild 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 212 | 16 | 329 |
| NYI | 011 | 310 | 312 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:15MINZach PariseAssists: Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:23NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:57NYICalvin de HaanAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 7:31NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 12:37MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 6:29NYIAlan QuineGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 8:35NYIThomas HickeyAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 17:12MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Eric Staal, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 18:17NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Andrew Ladd, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:27NYIDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:03MINZach Parise: Interference2 min
- P2 1:56NYIJason Chimera: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:56NYINikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
- P3 9:56MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:07NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:07NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:07MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:07MINCharlie Coyle: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:07NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Granlund13:16
xG 1.63–0.14 (92%)attempts 27–8goals 2–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter11:11
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Zucker – Eriksson Ek8:14
xG 0.20–0.48 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Stewart – Dalpe – Pulkkinen7:26
xG 0.02–0.46 (4%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba17:49
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 22–15goals 1–1
- Brodin – Folin11:15
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba2:10
xG 0.23–0.29 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestQuine – Strome – Beauvillier6:52
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 3–0
- Chimera – Lee – Nelson9:11
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas9:23
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Tavares12:59
xG 0.59–0.97 (38%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan15:18
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 1–2
- Hamonic – Leddy15:14
xG 0.36–0.75 (33%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Hickey14:24
xG 0.46–0.90 (34%)attempts 14–22goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).