Mon, Oct 24, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 112 | 014 | 132 |
| MTL | 09 | 113 | 211 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:28MTLShea WeberAssists: Alexander Radulov, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 11:47PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Brandon Manning · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 13:08MTLBrendan GallagherPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 18:57MTLAlexander RadulovENAssists: Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:59PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
- P1 14:37MTLAlexander Radulov: Interference2 min
- P2 8:52PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:33PHIBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min
- P3 13:04PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGordon – VandeVelde – Lyubimov5:30
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny12:49
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Read – Cousins – Bellemare8:23
xG 0.05–0.34 (12%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn14:38
xG 0.14–0.58 (19%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Gostisbehere2:49
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere14:08
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Streit – Schultz12:08
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Radulov – Lehkonen12:02
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Byron – Shaw9:18
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Flynn10:21
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:12
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin16:59
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu12:41
xG 0.82–0.71 (53%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry14:44
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).