Tue, Oct 25, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Minnesota Wild 5, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 414 | 111 | 533 |
| BOS | 05 | 013 | 09 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:07MINCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 5:19MINChris StewartAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 10:36MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 16:39MINJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan Suter, Joel Eriksson Ek · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–0
- P3 15:12MINJason PominvilleAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:04BOSTim Schaller: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:04MINZac Dalpe: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:16BOSDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:08MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:31BOSAdam McQuaid: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:25BOSBrandon Carlo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:35BOSJohn-Michael Liles: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:54MINZac Dalpe: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:54MINZac Dalpe: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:54BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:27MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Dalpe – Pulkkinen4:26
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter11:53
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Stewart – Zucker – Eriksson Ek5:03
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund13:18
xG 0.40–1.02 (28%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba18:47
xG 0.92–0.56 (62%)attempts 14–22goals 3–0
- Scandella – Prosser10:56
xG 0.59–0.42 (59%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Brodin – Folin13:00
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak8:43
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Moore – Hayes – Spooner9:56
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Nash – Schaller – Acciari6:10
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Heinen3:37
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo14:46
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug3:32
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo2:00
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).