Tue, Oct 25, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 28 | 115 | 17 | 430 |
| STL | 05 | 06 | 113 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:30CGYDeryk EngellandGWGAssists: Kris Versteeg, Sam Bennett · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 2:16CGYSam BennettAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 5:49STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 18:49CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Matt Stajan, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:45STLPatrik Berglund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:02CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:32STLKyle Brodziak: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:57CGYSam Bennett: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:14CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:26CGYTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:46STLDmitrij Jaskin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:46CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:54STLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P3 13:54CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schwartz won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Brouwer – Bennett8:56
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan13:03
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:52
xG 0.40–0.33 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland7:18
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Hamilton9:17
xG 0.94–0.40 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Brodie – Hamilton2:15
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano13:32
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:49
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Berglund – Jaskin – Yakupov6:39
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Berglund – Yakupov – Fabbri2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Jaskin2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo4:21
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Edmundson2:14
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk3:02
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).