Tue, Oct 25, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 113 | 19 | 230 |
| DAL | 111 | 17 | 18 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37DALBrett RitchieAssists: Curtis McKenzie, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:02DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Devin Shore, Justin Dowling · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 19:55WPGJoel ArmiaUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 7:27DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:50WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Adam Lowry, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:03WPGTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:19WPGPatrik Laine: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:48DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P2 2:50DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:15WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:54WPGAdam Lowry: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:36DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P3 16:18WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:40WPGAdam Lowry: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:56DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:56WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:56DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Lowry – Armia10:14
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Tanev4:05
xG 0.16–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine10:59
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Perreault – Burmistrov – Ehlers2:57
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey16:52
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Stuart – Chiarot6:36
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers16:12
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Eaves – Benn – Faksa9:12
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Roussel – Seguin8:25
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Cracknell – Dowling – Smith8:09
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- McKenzie – Ritchie – Shore9:27
xG 0.09–0.64 (13%)attempts 4–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Klingberg12:23
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Oduya – Nemeth2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Benn10:28
xG 0.34–0.42 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).