Wed, Oct 26, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 1, Anaheim Ducks 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 010 | 110 | 129 |
| ANA | 110 | 511 | 05 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57ANANick RitchiePPAssists: Michael Sgarbossa, Antoine Vermette · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:26ANAJakob SilfverbergSHGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 9:30ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–3
- P2 15:04ANACorey PerryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 17:00ANAAndrew CoglianoSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–5
- P2 19:13ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–6
- P3 7:43NSHColin WilsonPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:20NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:14ANAChris Wagner: Interference2 min
- P2 2:56ANAKorbinian Holzer: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:42ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min
- P2 9:20NSHRyan Johansen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:36ANAKevin Bieksa: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:50NSHColin Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:01NSHYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P3 7:27ANANick Ritchie: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Forsberg – Fiala10:39
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith10:33
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons8:38
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Johansen – Arvidsson8:49
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Weber11:42
xG 0.53–0.07 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm16:35
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:49
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBoll – Sgarbossa – Cramarossa7:32
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Perry – Ritchie10:29
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Etem – Wagner – Garbutt10:33
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:11
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Theodore12:17
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson14:46
xG 0.36–0.49 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Holzer14:26
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).