Thu, Oct 27, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 015 | 117 | 15 | 237 |
| PIT | 112 | 07 | 316 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 15:13NYITravis HamonicAssists: Shane Prince, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 12:48PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 15:38NYIShane PrincePPAssists: Brock Nelson, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 17:35PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Scott Wilson, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 18:07PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:28NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:17PITTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:23NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:32NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min
- P2 5:04PITDavid Warsofsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:47PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P3 0:53NYIRyan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:00PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:27PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:52NYIAndrew Ladd: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier8:32
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas8:03
xG 0.21–0.45 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Prince – Quine – Strome7:27
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Ladd – Bailey – Tavares11:17
xG 0.40–0.82 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy14:30
xG 1.02–0.93 (52%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan12:59
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Hickey11:30
xG 0.13–0.85 (13%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Wilson11:14
xG 1.43–0.63 (69%)attempts 24–9goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Kessel11:24
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl6:44
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bonino – Hagelin – Rust8:38
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Dumoulin14:40
xG 0.86–0.19 (82%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Warsofsky10:16
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Daley – Maatta12:57
xG 0.80–0.70 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).