Thu, Oct 27, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 012 | 114 | 139 |
| WPG | 222 | 18 | 16 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15WPGTyler MyersAssists: Joel Armia · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 16:12WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 4:30WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 0:33DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jordie Benn · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 10:17WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:34WPGBrandon Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:18WPGJoel Armia: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:05DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:44DALBrett Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:25DALJustin Dowling: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:22DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:42WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:27DALJohnny Oduya: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:05WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23DALGemel Smith: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:11DALJordie Benn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:27WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:21WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – Dowling – Smith7:27
xG 0.51–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Korpikoski – Roussel – Seguin2:47
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McKenzie – Ritchie – Shore6:36
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Faksa3:02
xG 0.03–0.08 (30%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Klingberg9:30
xG 1.00–0.39 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Oduya – Benn8:06
xG 0.53–0.03 (94%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Lindell12:01
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Lowry – Armia7:39
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Perreault – Ehlers – Connor7:07
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine7:56
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Tanev6:21
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Chiarot9:30
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey9:45
xG 0.36–0.74 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers13:18
xG 0.43–1.07 (29%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).