Thu, Oct 27, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 19 | 18 | 01 | 226 |
| LAK | 08 | 112 | 120 | 15 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:56NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 15:59LAKJake MuzzinPPAssists: Nic Dowd, Alec Martinez · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 1:00NSHViktor ArvidssonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 1:41LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Nic Dowd, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- OT 4:31LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:30LAKDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:30NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:30LAKDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:40NSHMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:40LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:31LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:11NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:41NSHJames Neal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:50LAKNic Dowd: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 0:55NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Fiala10:30
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Arvidsson8:29
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson9:04
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons7:09
xG 0.05–0.43 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:41
xG 0.94–0.75 (56%)attempts 21–22goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm16:07
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Weber – Irwin10:42
xG 0.21–0.69 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Shore9:00
xG 0.75–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Setoguchi – Pearson7:25
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Dowd – Andreoff11:50
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Kopitar – King3:50
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez13:01
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb18:46
xG 0.65–0.61 (52%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Forbort11:01
xG 0.22–0.42 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).