Fri, Oct 28, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 112 | 07 | 230 |
| CAR | 16 | 28 | 07 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 12:34CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Noah Hanifin, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:33CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 12:17NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Henrik Lundqvist · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 19:59CARBryan BickellPPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask · Deflected, 0.34 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:28CARJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20CARBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:26NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Fast – Miller12:15
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:48
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Grabner – Pirri – Lindberg7:49
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey12:57
xG 0.40–0.54 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh17:20
xG 0.68–0.10 (88%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Holden – Skjei14:36
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal15:41
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nordstrom – Aho13:48
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Teravainen – Lindholm10:53
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Bickell – Stalberg6:22
xG 0.07–0.25 (23%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask12:58
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk16:15
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Hanifin4:24
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Pesce2:50
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).