Fri, Oct 28, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 419 | 08 | 010 | 437 |
| ANA | 012 | 013 | 010 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12CBJSam GagnerGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, Lukas Sedlak · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:33CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Nick Foligno, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 13:50CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–0
- P1 14:10CBJSam GagnerPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.38 xG4–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:50CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:50ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:55ANAShea Theodore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:26CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:26ANAClayton Stoner: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:47ANACorey Perry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:29CBJJack Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:16CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:41ANAKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:57ANARyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:35CBJNick Foligno: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:27CBJDalton Prout: Interference2 min
- P3 12:00ANARyan Kesler: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg7:14
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak6:02
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Anderson6:36
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Karlsson8:48
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski12:33
xG 0.60–0.50 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard12:24
xG 1.08–0.99 (52%)attempts 14–21goals 2–0
- Prout – Nutivaara13:29
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ritchie9:04
xG 1.06–0.59 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:58
xG 0.65–0.46 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Boll – Wagner – Garbutt2:09
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Wagner – Garbutt5:25
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vatanen – Theodore2:09
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson10:57
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Theodore10:49
xG 0.64–0.76 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).