Sat, Oct 29, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 0, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 012 | 013 | 033 |
| BUF | 110 | 19 | 16 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47BUFJohan LarssonGWGAssists: Brian Gionta, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:57BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
- P3 8:48BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:36FLASteven Kampfer: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:07BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Broken stick2 min
- P2 2:59FLASteven Kampfer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:47FLAColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:24BUFDmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P3 0:23BUFJohan Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:31FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:44BUFBrian Gionta: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Smith – Trocheck9:14
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Harper – McCann – Malgin8:21
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – McKegg7:42
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Jagr – Marchessault – Barkov12:35
xG 0.30–0.66 (32%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers14:27
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Ekblad14:01
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Pysyk13:56
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Larsson12:39
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Moulson – Okposo – O'Reilly9:57
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Fasching2:05
xG 0.01–0.01 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – Girgensons – Reinhart9:39
xG 0.02–0.29 (8%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen15:22
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Franson – McCabe12:10
xG 0.09–0.35 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Kulikov15:41
xG 0.04–0.37 (11%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).