Sat, Oct 29, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 1, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 118 | 011 | 136 |
| DET | 07 | 08 | 09 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:11BOSTim SchallerGWGAssists: Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:43BOSZdeno Chara: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:43DETSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:33DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min
- P2 2:31BOSTim Schaller: Holding2 min
- P2 3:27DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:42BOSDominic Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:03DETDarren Helm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:31DETDylan Larkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:38BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P3 13:41BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:41DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:47BOSBrandon Carlo: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Heinen7:30
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Hayes8:57
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Schaller – Acciari8:09
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Krejci – Spooner – Czarnik9:37
xG 0.50–0.62 (44%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug13:27
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Liles – Miller9:42
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo16:07
xG 0.75–1.04 (42%)attempts 24–19goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Tatar13:56
xG 0.92–0.49 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Larkin6:31
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Helm – Sheahan – Athanasiou5:47
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Miller – Glendening4:51
xG 0.01–0.22 (4%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Marchenko11:07
xG 0.63–0.45 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Green – Smith2:19
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser11:47
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).