Sat, Oct 29, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 313 | 15 | 19 | 527 |
| PHI | 212 | 215 | 015 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Brandon Manning, Radko Gudas · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:02PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 15:44PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Scott Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 16:27PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P1 16:39PITMatt CullenAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 9:38PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 13:16PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Radko Gudas · Slap, 0.16 xG4–3
- P2 15:28PHIJakub VoracekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–4
- P3 8:33PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:15PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:16PITIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 11:17PITIan Cole: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:58PITCarl Hagelin: Embellishment2 min
- P2 15:28PITBrian Dumoulin: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:10PITScott Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:49PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl6:25
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Kessel14:11
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 15–18goals 2–1
- Bonino – Hagelin – Rust8:35
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Wilson11:54
xG 0.47–0.71 (40%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Maatta14:38
xG 1.07–0.48 (69%)attempts 19–18goals 3–1
- Cole – Dumoulin4:15
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Cole – Warsofsky7:44
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Konecny12:57
xG 0.97–0.53 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Read – Bellemare – Lyubimov9:20
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn13:47
xG 0.59–0.79 (43%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Gordon – VandeVelde – Weise5:30
xG 0.01–0.38 (4%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas15:48
xG 1.22–0.49 (71%)attempts 26–13goals 1–1
- Schultz – Gostisbehere14:38
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
- Streit – Provorov14:48
xG 0.48–0.92 (34%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).