Sat, Oct 29, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Washington Capitals 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 215 | 111 | 29 | 535 |
| VAN | 111 | 18 | 06 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:57WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Niskanen · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:12WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 19:54VANJannik HansenAssists: Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 8:58WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–1
- P2 17:17VANBo HorvatAssists: Sven Baertschi, Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
- P3 17:33WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 18:42WSHKarl AlznerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:57WSHT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P2 0:30WSHKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:18VANTroy Stecher: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:10VANBen Hutton: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:52WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:50VANJake Virtanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:50WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:58
xG 1.07–0.20 (84%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:45
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Oshie – Eller – Burakovsky12:18
xG 0.75–0.58 (56%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Beagle – Connolly – Sanford5:53
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt13:29
xG 1.04–0.37 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Carlson – Orlov16:29
xG 1.05–0.51 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner14:52
xG 0.73–0.66 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Horvat – Virtanen9:31
xG 0.83–0.71 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen11:55
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Skille – Gaunce – Zalewski6:10
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund9:44
xG 0.12–0.45 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Larsen10:22
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Hutton13:25
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Sbisa – Gudbranson2:30
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).