Sun, Oct 30, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 113 | 212 | 13 | 428 |
| CAR | 09 | 38 | 012 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:57PHIShayne GostisbeherePPUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 1:01CARJustin FaulkAssists: Ron Hainsey, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:07PHIRadko GudasAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 10:13CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ron Hainsey, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 11:58CARViktor StalbergUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 17:14PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 8:00PHIBrandon ManningSHGWGAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:20CARNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:08PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:05CARLee Stempniak: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 4:57CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:29PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Schenn11:20
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Read – Bellemare – Lyubimov10:50
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Weise – Cousins8:22
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny11:36
xG 0.34–0.91 (27%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Manning – Gudas18:05
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Streit – Provorov15:33
xG 0.44–0.74 (38%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere13:29
xG 0.41–0.83 (33%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Rask11:04
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Teravainen – Lindholm2:56
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Aho14:01
xG 0.53–0.56 (48%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- McClement – Bickell – Stalberg4:02
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce13:28
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Pesce2:04
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin2:48
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).