Sun, Oct 30, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Los Angeles Kings 0, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 011 | 013 | 032 |
| CHI | 111 | 110 | 18 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54CHIJonathan ToewsPPGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 13:30CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Marian Hossa, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 18:50CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.71 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:27LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:30LAKDerek Forbort: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:20LAKDwight King: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:17CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:45LAKDevin Setoguchi: Holding2 min
- P3 7:17CHIArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:40LAKNic Dowd: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:46LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Pearson4:00
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Nolan2:50
xG 0.02–0.03 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Clifford – Dowd2:01
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli5:15
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Doughty17:24
xG 1.07–0.65 (62%)attempts 26–17goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Muzzin14:36
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Greene – Forbort9:22
xG 0.00–0.26 (1%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Anisimov – Panarin8:27
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Hinostroza – Rasmussen6:23
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Panik11:43
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kruger – Motte – Schmaltz9:22
xG 0.37–0.81 (32%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Keith12:33
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson13:13
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Kempny14:05
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).