Sun, Oct 30, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 2, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 111 | 17 | 222 |
| EDM | 07 | 012 | 018 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:18OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Tom Pyatt, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 19:27OTTBobby RyanENAssists: Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:11OTTMark Borowiecki: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:53OTTMatt Puempel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:05EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:05OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:09OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:21EDMAnton Lander: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:41EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P3 10:28OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Turris – Hoffman4:59
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Neil – Kelly – Puempel5:30
xG 0.25–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Hoffman4:53
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Dzingel4:13
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman6:24
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:29
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson2:22
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins9:34
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Draisaitl – McDavid4:35
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – McDavid8:30
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Letestu – Maroon2:50
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Nurse10:57
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell14:22
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom15:54
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).