Sun, Oct 30, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 09 | 18 | 329 |
| CGY | 18 | 06 | 08 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Jay Beagle, Zachary Sanford · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 7:14WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 13:44CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:35WSHMarcus JohanssonENAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:39CGYDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:47CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:57WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:36WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Burakovsky12:03
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Beagle – Connolly – Sanford8:01
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:20
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:21
xG 0.48–0.62 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt12:01
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Carlson – Orlov17:36
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:47
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:32
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan10:09
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Gaudreau2:09
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland7:40
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Brodie14:23
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano15:11
xG 0.68–0.55 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Jokipakka – Hamilton15:14
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).