Tue, Nov 1, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 018 | 110 | 110 | 00 | 238 |
| CBJ | 09 | 111 | 17 | 11 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:50CBJNick FolignoAssists: Zach Werenski, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 10:13DALJason SpezzaAssists: Johnny Oduya, Stephen Johns · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:13DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:44CBJSam GagnerPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Zach Werenski · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 0:46CBJSeth JonesGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:09CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:09DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:30CBJJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:05DALGemel Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 8:12CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:08CBJWilliam Karlsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:42CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:00DALJohnny Oduya: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Benn – Seguin12:28
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Faksa8:49
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Cracknell – Ritchie – Smith7:39
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Korpikoski – Shore10:11
xG 0.08–0.86 (8%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Johns16:12
xG 1.34–0.32 (81%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell15:10
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Benn12:24
xG 0.47–0.54 (46%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Sedlak8:55
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Karlsson6:58
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner3:03
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg11:09
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray15:01
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Savard – Nutivaara10:16
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski17:20
xG 0.43–0.46 (49%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).