Tue, Nov 1, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 116 | 06 | 08 | 03 | 133 |
| OTT | 15 | 015 | 08 | 14 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34CARJaccob SlavinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 13:18OTTDion PhaneufAssists: Cody Ceci, Tom Pyatt · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 3:09OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:32OTTMatt Puempel: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:32CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:02OTTChris Wideman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:27CARRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:27OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:58OTTDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:58CARJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:40CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:23OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:35CARAndrej Nestrasil: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:35OTTMatt Puempel: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Rask12:54
xG 0.57–0.37 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Di Giuseppe4:30
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom10:10
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Lindholm – Aho9:07
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk18:00
xG 1.05–0.37 (74%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Murphy – Hanifin10:40
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce13:23
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Kelly – Puempel4:58
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Stone – Dzingel4:04
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Pageau2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Pyatt – Brassard2:30
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman6:36
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci16:26
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Borowiecki4:04
xG 0.04–0.48 (7%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).