Tue, Nov 1, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 2, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 13 | 114 | 09 | 226 |
| FLA | 013 | 07 | 114 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53BOSBrad MarchandUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 6:16BOSDominic MooreSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 15:25FLADenis MalginAssists: Keith Yandle, Mark Pysyk · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (17)
- P1 3:53FLAReilly Smith: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 4:39BOSTim Schaller: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:06BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min
- P1 15:13FLADenis Malgin: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:35BOSTim Schaller: Holding2 min
- P2 8:32BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:28BOSJimmy Hayes: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:28FLADerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:32FLADerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:32BOSJimmy Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:54BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P3 2:18BOSTorey Krug: Interference2 min
- P3 6:23FLAKyle Rau: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:40FLAShane Harper: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Spooner – Czarnik9:09
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Hayes4:10
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Schaller – Acciari8:12
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Heinen7:35
xG 0.07–0.74 (9%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Liles – Miller6:07
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo12:03
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug11:41
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Smith – Trocheck8:30
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Marchessault – Barkov9:25
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg5:53
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Rau – McCann – Malgin7:48
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers8:49
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk13:46
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad2:13
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).