Tue, Nov 1, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 19 | 110 | 327 |
| WPG | 014 | 015 | 216 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:16WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 8:15WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 13:04WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 17:35WPGAdam LowryAssists: Joel Armia, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 19:30WSHJay BeagleGWGAssists: John Carlson · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:17WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:40WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:52WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
- P2 11:26WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:14WPGKyle Connor: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:17WSHJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:55WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Kuznetsov – Wilson8:36
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Beagle – Connolly – Sanford7:37
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Burakovsky9:51
xG 0.45–0.72 (39%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Williams – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:31
xG 0.17–0.52 (25%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt11:40
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov13:19
xG 0.58–0.91 (39%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner14:51
xG 0.08–0.52 (13%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Armia – Tanev4:57
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers14:38
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Tanev2:19
xG 0.05–0.04 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia2:12
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Melchiori10:47
xG 0.60–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey17:32
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:41
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).