Tue, Nov 1, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 1, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 013 | 113 | 08 | 134 |
| CHI | 16 | 09 | 47 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:58CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:06CGYMichael FrolikSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 7:44CHIArtem AnisimovPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 12:34CHITyler MotteAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 16:59CHIArtemi PanarinENAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
- P3 18:16CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Richard Panik, Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:38CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:58CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P1 13:30CHIMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:04CHINick Schmaltz: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:35CGYMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:12CHIBrian Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:57CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:13CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:15CHIDennis Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:15CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bouma – Ferland6:03
xG 0.41–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk5:13
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett6:18
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan6:22
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Jokipakka2:05
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Hamilton7:13
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton2:32
xG 0.16–0.04 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Anisimov – Panarin6:38
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Panik6:55
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Motte – Schmaltz4:59
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Hinostroza – Rasmussen3:47
xG 0.02–0.16 (13%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Keith9:17
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson9:06
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Rozsival – Forsling9:23
xG 0.07–0.57 (10%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).