Tue, Nov 1, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 4, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 310 | 05 | 421 |
| LAK | 07 | 011 | 012 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:29ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 2:49ANAAntoine VermettePPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 3:20ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–0
- P2 10:46ANAJoseph CramarossaAssists: Rickard Rakell, Antoine Vermette · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG4–0
Penalties (21)
- P1 2:33LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:33ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:22LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:24LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 18:24ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:30LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:40LAKTom Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:40ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:09ANAJoseph Cramarossa: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:09ANAClayton Stoner: Instigator2 min
- P3 10:09ANAClayton Stoner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:09LAKDerek Forbort: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:09LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:09LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09LAKDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:09LAKNicholas Shore: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09ANAJoseph Cramarossa: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:09ANAJosh Manson: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:12
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell2:53
xG 0.02–0.06 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Boll – Wagner – Garbutt5:39
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Cramarossa – Rakell6:22
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen11:32
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Fowler – Manson15:32
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler2:41
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Toffoli10:46
xG 0.87–0.12 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Lewis – Dowd13:52
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore6:18
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Kopitar – Pearson11:22
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Muzzin11:00
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Forbort8:53
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty5:26
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).