Wed, Nov 2, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 017 | 012 | 042 |
| MTL | 03 | 211 | 18 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:22MTLNathan BeaulieuGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P2 19:11MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Phillip Danault, Brian Flynn · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 18:05MTLAlexander RadulovENAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.72 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:34VANLuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P1 12:58MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P1 18:12VANPhilip Larsen: Interference2 min
- P2 3:45MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:52VANChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:10MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P2 13:10MTLPaul Byron: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:28MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Sutter – Granlund11:09
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen11:32
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Burrows – Dorsett – Gaunce5:10
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen5:09
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Larsen7:02
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tanev2:51
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton11:55
xG 0.83–0.67 (55%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Gallagher – Galchenyuk9:00
xG 0.98–0.46 (68%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Lehkonen7:07
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Flynn8:24
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Shaw11:22
xG 0.16–1.29 (11%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Beaulieu12:31
xG 0.99–0.67 (60%)attempts 10–23goals 1–0
- Weber – Emelin13:25
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry13:09
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).