Thu, Nov 3, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 014 | 19 | 113 | 06 | 1 | 342 |
| NYI | 08 | 18 | 110 | 01 | 0 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:11PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 19:31NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Casey Cizikas, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 12:55NYIDennis SeidenbergAssists: Josh Bailey, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:02PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: Nick Cousins, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Cal Clutterbuck stopped
- 2. PHI Nick Cousins stopped
- 3. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:46NYIAlan Quine: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:11NYIDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
- P2 0:42PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:25NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:28PHINick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 18:08PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:15NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56PHIBrandon Manning: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:34NYIJason Chimera: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Raffl9:18
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Schenn – Cousins8:17
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Read – Bellemare – Lyubimov7:48
xG 0.10–0.14 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny12:02
xG 0.27–0.72 (27%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Provorov14:00
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Gostisbehere11:41
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas18:54
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas4:34
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Prince – Quine2:01
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Tavares – Cizikas3:40
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome7:11
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Hickey11:35
xG 0.62–0.14 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan18:23
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Leddy14:09
xG 0.30–0.71 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).