Thu, Nov 3, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Edmonton Oilers 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 19 | 15 | 324 |
| NYR | 110 | 111 | 310 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 8:34NYRKevin HayesAssists: Michael Grabner, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 10:28EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 15:46NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 8:49EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Andrej Sekera, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 9:31NYRJesper FastAssists: Brandon Pirri, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 18:39NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Nick Holden, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 18:56NYRJ.T. MillerENAssists: Nick Holden, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:39EDMAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:01NYRJesper Fast: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 19:48NYRNick Holden: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:47EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:46NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:21EDMTyler Pitlick: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi10:43
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Lucic – Eberle – McDavid12:31
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Letestu – Lander – Pitlick8:28
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Pouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins9:25
xG 0.09–0.75 (11%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benning – Nurse13:31
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Sekera – Russell13:09
xG 0.18–1.10 (14%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom15:42
xG 0.32–1.47 (18%)attempts 12–20goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Fast – Buchnevich9:39
xG 1.04–0.30 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller11:20
xG 1.02–0.28 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey4:23
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Zuccarello7:38
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Holden13:45
xG 1.25–0.23 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Klein – Skjei14:38
xG 0.84–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Girardi – McDonagh16:01
xG 1.04–0.59 (64%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).