Thu, Nov 3, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 05 | 311 | 00 | 327 |
| WSH | 14 | 218 | 07 | 13 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:38WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Justin Williams · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 1:48WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 10:04WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–3
- P3 2:11WPGToby EnstromSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 5:23WPGAdam LowryAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 11:11WPGMarko DanoAssists: Andrew Copp, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 3:21WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:04WSHBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45WPGMarko Dano: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:10WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:25WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:23WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P3 9:34WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:34WPGMark Scheifele: Embellishment2 min
- P3 11:31WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:21WPGKyle Connor: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers9:02
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor7:30
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Tanev2:25
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Perreault – Connor – Tanev4:21
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien2:15
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey17:14
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Postma12:47
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Ovechkin – Backstrom5:45
xG 0.52–0.24 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 2–1
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov3:45
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Burakovsky9:03
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson4:34
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov14:05
xG 1.08–0.63 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Schmidt2:18
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Orpik – Schmidt10:19
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).