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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 3, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Boston Bruins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

TBL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS2131906032431
TBL1111918021330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:01BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:47BOSRyan SpoonerPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P1 15:09TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P2 4:38BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P2 8:30TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
  6. P3 10:04TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Braydon Coburn, Slater Koekkoek · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
  2. 2. BOS Ryan Spooner stopped
  3. 3. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
  4. 4. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
  5. 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
  6. 6. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
  7. 7. TBL Brayden Point scored
  8. 8. BOS Riley Nash scored
  9. 9. TBL Ondrej Palat stopped
  10. 10. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  11. 11. TBL Tyler Johnson stopped
  12. 12. BOS David Krejci stopped
  13. 13. TBL Alex Killorn stopped
  14. 14. BOS Torey Krug stopped
  15. 15. TBL Ryan Callahan stopped
  16. 16. BOS Dominic Moore stopped
  17. 17. TBL Anton Stralman stopped
  18. 18. BOS Austin Czarnik stopped
  19. 19. TBL Vladislav Namestnikov stopped
  20. 20. BOS Jimmy Hayes scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 7:17TBLJT Brown: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 7:17TBLJT Brown: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 14:07BOSAdam McQuaid: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 6:32BOSDominic Moore: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 12:55TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 15:52BOSNoel Acciari: Tripping2 min
  7. OT 0:28BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
  8. OT 4:21TBLOndrej Palat: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
44% to win56% to win
← BOS attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Filppula
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSTBL
31Shots on goal30
1.8Expected goals1.6
55Shot attempts52
35Faceoffs won39
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
21Hits20
14Blocked shots17
8Giveaways9
7Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak14:36

    xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0

  2. Krejci – Spooner – Czarnik11:52

    xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0

  3. Moore – Schaller – Acciari10:12

    xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0

  4. Nash – Hayes – Kuraly6:58

    xG 0.03–0.25 (10%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestLiles – Miller12:47

    xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0

  2. Chara – Carlo18:15

    xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0

  3. Chara – McQuaid2:13

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestKillorn – Johnson – Point12:35

    xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0

  2. Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov13:17

    xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  3. Filppula – Callahan – Namestnikov3:11

    xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  4. Boyle – Brown – Paquette2:17

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Stralman – Garrison2:14

    xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. Stralman – Hedman15:54

    xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0

  3. Coburn – Koekkoek10:09

    xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 1.6 xGBOS 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #196 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.03 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 44% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

TBL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).