Thu, Nov 3, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 115 | 210 | 01 | 334 |
| FLA | 16 | 18 | 114 | 13 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:58FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 6:44FLADenis MalginPPAssists: Jason Demers, Colton Sceviour · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 18:04NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Damon Severson · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 4:29FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Mark Pysyk · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 4:49NJDPA ParenteauAssists: John Moore, Nick Lappin · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 16:05NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Beau Bennett, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 4:16FLAVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.43 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:06FLAJames Reimer: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:37NJDKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:22NJDBen Lovejoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:22FLAKeith Yandle: Embellishment2 min
- P1 18:54FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 5:05NJDPavel Zacha: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:18NJDAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:44FLAGreg McKegg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:10FLAAlexander Petrovic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Henrique – Lappin3:27
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Hall10:22
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Kalinin – Lappin5:24
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Bennett – Zacha8:02
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson12:41
xG 0.55–0.16 (78%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Quincey – Moore6:11
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Greene – Lovejoy3:46
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRau – McCann – Malgin7:31
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Smith – Trocheck12:55
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg8:01
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Jagr – Marchessault – Barkov10:38
xG 0.17–0.68 (20%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers13:00
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ekblad12:53
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk14:01
xG 0.56–0.55 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).